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The gold price has been recovering since Friday, rising by 6.5% to €131,000 per kilogram, the result of a 180-degree shift in market sentiment. Financial markets are once again viewing gold as the familiar safe haven, as economic expectations are being revised downward due to high energy prices. Several major banks, including ABN AMRO, therefore expect higher gold prices for 2026 and are increasing their allocation to gold. In addition, the French central bank announced last week that it had booked a windfall gain of €13 billion due to higher gold prices. This and more in the market update of April 1.
The recent price correction in precious metals was partly the result of expected interest rate hikes by the Fed (the US central bank). Central banks typically combat inflation by raising interest rates, which makes yield-bearing investments such as currencies and bonds more attractive than gold, which does not generate interest. Fears of possible rate hikes to combat inflation have faded following recent remarks by Fed Chair Powell. Gold is therefore once again seen as a safe haven, as markets expect high energy prices to slow economic growth.
Powell, who appeared at a Q&A session at Harvard University, elaborated extensively on market expectations. He indicated that the Fed, in its monetary policy, is not easily influenced by short-term supply shocks in energy markets and that long-term inflation expectations have not yet changed.
Central bankers often express themselves in nuanced terms, but markets follow every public appearance and weigh statements carefully. During the discussion, a question was also raised about the risks of private credit, which some analysts believe could trigger a new financial crisis due to deteriorating loans. Powell responded that the Fed is closely monitoring whether problems in private credit are spilling over into the broader financial sector, but that this is not currently the case. The possibility of a new financial crisis is being closely monitored, as it could prompt central banks to cut interest rates, as in 2008, and gold would once again fulfill its role as a safe haven in such a scenario.
A number of key analyses at a glance:
Goldman Sachs, forecast of $5,400 per troy ounce by the end of 2026: the bank maintains its long-term outlook for gold despite the recent correction. Gold could fall to $3,800 in the short term if the supply shock from the oil crisis persists, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven write, but the war with Iran could also contribute to further diversification away from traditional Western investments (i.e. geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict may lead, for example, Gulf states or Europe to move away from US Treasuries, etc.). They expect a gold price of $5,400 as a result of continued central bank purchases and anticipate up to two rate cuts by the US Fed.
Commerzbank, forecast of $5,000 per ounce for gold and $90 for silver in the second half of 2026: the German bank raised its price forecasts last Friday, expecting the war with Iran to end before the summer. “We even expect the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts by the end of the year, with rates 75 basis points lower by mid-2027,” said Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodity Research.
HSBC, gold remains an important long-term investment: According to HSBC analysts, gold is behaving like a high-risk asset and is likely to remain volatile in 2026: “There has been a shift in gold investors toward retail participants and leveraged buyers who are forced to liquidate positions quickly during periods of market stress.” However, the de-dollarization trend remains an important reason to stay invested in gold, according to HSBC analysts.
ABN AMRO, private banking increases gold allocation from 3% to 5%: this Dutch bank sees the current correction in gold as an attractive buying opportunity. “Gold failed to benefit from a flight to safe havens. Nevertheless, we believe that structural factors—such as increased investor allocation, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and the need for diversification—will continue to support gold over the longer term.” Richard de Groot, Head of Global Investment Centre
The French central bank has recorded a positive result of €13 billion through a revaluation of its gold reserves. Central banks often carry gold reserves on their balance sheets at historical values. By selling older gold bars and purchasing new gold bars, the French central bank was able to carry out this revaluation. The bank chose this method to replace older bars with new ones that meet all international standards.
This is a long-term project spanning more than two decades. Although the bank stated that this was not politically motivated, it sold older gold bars that were still stored in New York and stored newly purchased bars in Paris. As a result, it has effectively reduced its gold holdings in the United States and repatriated them.
Now that sentiment in the gold market appears to be turning again, we are seeing many investors re-enter gold and silver. The silver price has also shown a strong recovery in recent days. If you are interested in the possibilities of buying gold coins or gold bars, or if you would like to invest via a precious metals account, please feel free to contact us.
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On behalf of Holland Gold, Paul Buitink and Yael Potjer interview various economists and macroeconomic experts. The goal of the podcast is to provide viewers with better insight and guidance in an increasingly fast-changing macroeconomic and monetary landscape. Click here to subscribe.
