Will pension funds invest more in gold? – Achmea IM Chief Strategist Thomas van Galen

Paul Buitink speaks with Thomas van Galen, Chief Strategist at Achmea Investment Management, about the impact of geopolitics on pension investing, inflation, and the role of gold and commodities. How does he view the changing world order? And what does this mean for the way portfolios are constructed?

According to Van Galen, the traditional split between equities and bonds is becoming less effective. While bonds used to provide protection, inflation shocks now mean that both asset classes can come under pressure at the same time. As a result, broad diversification is becoming increasingly important. Gold and commodities are playing a growing role in this, with a potential allocation of 5 to 10 percent as a diversifier.

They also discuss tensions in the Middle East and the impact on energy prices and inflation. Van Galen outlines several scenarios, ranging from rapid de-escalation to further escalation. In the most likely scenario, the conflict lingers, keeping pressure on energy and prices.

The role of central banks is also addressed. Unlike in previous crises, they have less control over inflation driven by supply shocks, such as rising energy prices. This makes the current economic environment fundamentally different from recent decades.

Finally, they discuss the outlook for different asset classes. Van Galen is cautious on equities due to high valuations and sees limited attractiveness in bonds amid persistent inflation. The key takeaway: in an uncertain world, broad diversification is essential to manage risk and protect purchasing power.