Elmer Hogervorst expects stock market crash and euro fall

This autumn, the stock market will fall sharply and we can expect a stock market correction next year as well. We also have to take into account high volatility in the financial markets and a further decline in the euro in the coming years. So says Elmer Hogervorst, co-author of the books Money, Gold and Silver (2011) and Deflation in Approach (2014) in an interview with Holland Gold. It is based on technical analysis of long-term fluctuations in the financial markets.

Hogervorst developed his own investment model, based on Christopher Carolan's Spiral Calendar. This is a Gregorian calendar based on the lunar cycle, which is different from the modern calendar. Carolan published the book in 1992 'The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets', in which he shows that the stock market crashes of 1987 and 1929 took place at the same time in this lunar calendar and followed a similar course of prices. The stock market crashes in 1907, 1857, 1873 and 1997 also appear to be explained according to this lunar cycle.

Own model

Hogervorst developed a model based on this lunar calendar to gain more insight into price movements in the financial markets. Based on the methodology of this model, he comes to the conclusion that many stock market developments have their own dynamics, which can be traced back to human behaviour and recurring patterns. According to Hogervorst, news events and policies of central banks and governments can strengthen or weaken the market, but not fundamentally change it.

With regard to precious metals, Hogervorst foresees a decline in the short term as a result of increasing deflationary forces, followed by a substantial increase in the longer term. He also expects a further decline in the euro against the dollar, with an exchange rate possibly of $0.90 or even $0.80. In addition to this currency risk, he also foresees more risks in the banking sector, which is why he advises taking more savings out of the financial system and converting them into tangible things, such as gold and silver. Click here to watch the interview