Hoogland: Copper Stocks Could Soon Surge Even Higher

The copper price is holding up remarkably well despite the sharp rise in bond yields. At the same time, inventories are shrinking and production in Chile is under pressure. According to Jack Hoogland, the lagging valuations of copper stocks therefore offer particularly interesting opportunities.

A commodity such as copper normally suffers considerably when bond yields rise. However, the chart below shows that the copper price is holding up remarkably well despite the sharp rise in bond yields this year.

Copper is in an upward trend and is trading as much as 11% higher than at the end of 2025. The simple fact that the copper price is 11% higher despite the rise in bond yields says a great deal about the current state of the copper market!

Rising demand for copper and shrinking inventories

In the tweet below, commodities investor Robert Friedland points out that July is normally a quiet month for physical copper demand. But not this year.

Friedland also notes that inventories are shrinking, resulting in an increasingly tight market and a growing likelihood of a rapid and substantial price increase.

Problems in Chile

This comes as it emerged last week that copper production in Chile, the world’s largest copper-producing country, is under severe pressure.

Codelco, one of the world’s largest copper producers, even reported an 18% decline in production. Codelco’s new CEO subsequently announced that the financially troubled state-owned company would change its strategy.

The focus is shifting from quantity to quality: no longer prioritising production growth, but profitable production. As a result, Chilean production is very likely to decline further in the coming years, while the global copper shortage will continue to grow.

An additional 30 percent discount

However, negative sentiment among equity investors has now created a unique situation. As of Monday’s close, copper was trading 11% higher than at the end of 2025, which corresponds to approximately 33% earnings growth for copper producers.

But due to negative investor sentiment, copper stocks are currently trading only 3.5% higher on average than at the end of 2025. This means that these already exceptionally cheap stocks can now be purchased at an additional 30% discount.

We expect government bond yields to decline in the period ahead, leading to a very sharp rise in the copper price. If copper does indeed begin to rally strongly in the near future, copper stocks could surge even more dramatically!