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Jack Hoogland is seeing more and more news reports that reinforce his expectation of a sharp rise in the uranium price. Major countries are securing their supplies as demand from the nuclear energy sector continues to grow. How does he believe these developments could lead to the biggest bull market of our lifetime?
Two weeks ago, I showed you in this article that all the lights are green for uranium. However, we are heading for more than just a sharp rise in the uranium price. This week, the World Nuclear Association published its annual outlook, and the chart below shows how strongly demand for uranium is expected to grow through 2050.
Global capacity is expected to rise from 423 GW at the end of 2025 to 477 GW in 2030 and even to nearly 1,500 GW in 2050. This is happening while uranium production is already insufficient. However, that is only part of the reason why I expect a very substantial rise in the uranium price.
Three months ago, I showed you in this article that Kazakhstan is going to build up its own uranium stockpile. And that India has signed long-term uranium supply deals with the world’s two largest producers, Canada’s Cameco and Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazatomprom.
The tweet below shows that India (which is going to build 90 reactors) is also in the process of concluding a deal with Uzbekistan.
This makes it clear that India, like China and Kazakhstan, is building up additional uranium stockpiles (on top of what it actually needs).
It is no coincidence that the FT issued a clear warning today; see the tweet below. The current expectation is that Russia (which is also investing heavily in nuclear energy) will control well over a third of global supply by 2040.
As a result, as the FT points out, concerns about uranium availability will grow rapidly in the West. This is happening while there is already a uranium shortage, producers’ willingness to invest in new uranium mines remains limited, and developing new mines takes a very long time.
Because demand for uranium is inelastic (meaning it does not fall as prices rise), these justified fears about availability will drive the price to an unimaginably high level. So let me repeat something I have written many times before: The uranium bull market will be the biggest we will ever experience in our lifetime!
Jack Hoogland worked for the US company Citigroup in Amsterdam, Düsseldorf, Madrid and Brussels as a Financial Analyst, Risk Manager and Finance Director. Jack has followed the financial markets since the late 1980s and has increasingly focused on macroeconomics and the financial system since the financial crisis. Read more from Jack Hoogland.
