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This article has been automatically translated from Dutch. Click here to see the orginal article including all links to sources.
In this final weekly selection of the year, we observe that resistance to Brussels' climate regulations continues to grow. Two prominent figures from Dutch business voiced sharp criticism of overregulation this week. Additionally, reports indicate that Russians are using Bitcoin to circumvent Western sanctions. Finally, we take a look at gold, which is set to close this year with a 35% return. Next year, gold production could peak, followed by a prolonged decline.
Earlier this month, we noted that the tide appears to be turning on the EU's ambitious climate agenda. This week, two interviews in Dutch newspapers featured business leaders calling for a change in often climate-related overregulation.
Yesterday, De Telegraaf published an interview with Peter Berdowski, CEO of Boskalis, where he was highly critical. According to him, Boskalis is heading towards a split unless EU regulations are amended: “The EU's green agenda is completely divorced from reality.” Berdowski pointed out that more than half of global energy will still come from fossil fuels after 2045. He noted that increasing bureaucracy, high electricity costs, and limited grid capacity are driving businesses away: “Companies no longer invest in the Netherlands because they can’t make the math work.”
He argued that Brussels assumed the rest of the world would follow the EU's regulations, which so far has not been the case. Berdowski even threatened a company split: “If the CSDDD reporting requirement proceeds in its current form, we are heading for a split—a Boskalis for European activities and one for activities outside Europe—because otherwise, we can't compete with companies not subject to these regulations.” We discussed this topic further in this week’s podcast with Frank Knopers.
Similarly, Peter Wennink, former CEO of ASML until April, was critical in an interview published Tuesday in the Financial Times. He noted a sense of complacency in Europe, which he believes is sleepwalking into a crisis. According to Wennink, Europe became prosperous thanks to cheap Russian gas and low-cost production in China, but it has no strategy to cope with the loss of these advantages. He added that China has surpassed Europe, which now lacks vision while regulations from governments stifle progress.
Last Sunday, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Minister of Energy, threatened to stop gas supplies to Europe unless we ease our regulations. The Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), approved by the European Parliament this year, allows the EU to claim up to 5% of global turnover from multinationals if they fail to meet European climate reporting obligations starting in 2028. “If I lose 5% of my generated revenue by going to Europe, then I won’t go to Europe. I’m not bluffing,” said al-Kaabi.
Our gas reserves are depleting rapidly this winter and have already been reduced by a third. Reserves in Germany and the rest of the EU are also falling quickly, ironically due to the cold winter. Perhaps it wasn’t the best idea to stop gas extraction in Groningen, making us dependent on foreign supplies?
For those interested in more details about Europe’s decline, last Friday, the Fed published a more academic analysis on its website. The author, François de Soyres, also shared a handy summary in a thread on X.
On Wednesday, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that Russian companies have started using Bitcoin and other digital currencies to bypass Western sanctions. Siluanov also expects this usage to increase next year. Earlier this year, Russia legalized the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and took steps to make crypto mining, including Bitcoin, legal.
Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin praised Bitcoin in contrast to dollar reserves. He criticized the U.S. government's use of the dollar for political purposes, stating, "Why build reserves if they can be so easily lost?" On Bitcoin, he remarked, "For example, Bitcoin—who can forbid it? No one."
These sanctions have thus become not only a factor driving up gold prices but also a normalizing force for Bitcoin. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price showed little reaction to Siluanov’s statement. While one might expect this to spark a race for Bitcoin reserves, it could also lead to stricter Western regulations.
Gold prices remained stable this week, exceeding €80,000 per kilo. If this holds until the year's end, gold will have delivered a roughly 35% return this year, significantly outpacing the AEX index, which is up around 12%. Economist Daniel Lacalle sees the strong gold price and weak oil price as indicators of increased money creation and a weakening economy. We covered the reasons behind rising gold prices in an article published in May.
A few weeks ago, we spoke with gold analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs about the factors driving gold prices and his predictions for the coming years. He stated that the Chinese central bank is purchasing significant amounts of gold in London, far more than official figures suggest. Nieuwenhuijs believes this gold is secretly intended for the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Recent figures show that 55 tons of gold were shipped from the UK to China in October alone. Total Chinese gold imports in October officially reached 69 tons, indicating Beijing’s vision for a larger role for gold in the future international monetary system.
On the supply side, bullish signals also persist. This week, Mining.com published a detailed analysis of global gold production trends. According to the article, worldwide gold production will peak next year at approximately 3,250 tons before entering a prolonged decline.
Analyst Oliver Blagden attributes this to several factors: reserves are being depleted, ore quality is declining, and older mines are expected to close. He also highlighted the rise of resource nationalism, particularly in Africa, where countries are nationalizing gold mines. This discourages foreign investment and production. We previously covered the kidnapping of a mining CEO in Mali and the nationalization of mines in Tanzania. Blagden predicts that gold mine production could decline by as much as 13% between 2025 and 2030.
